THE VERY STRANGE CASE OF MR JULIAN ASSANGE.

I must be upfront to start with.  I have never been able to warm to Mr Assange. Perhaps it’s the smooth silky soft spoken delivery or the ghost of a perpetual half smirk as he piously intones about the moral failings of those allegedly ranged against him. Perhaps it's when he tries to explain why he should not face those who accuse him of rape.

Mr Assange is the great exposer. He is Mr Wikileaks who allowed the bright light of day to shine on the dark and murky goings on in those vast and sinister organisations like the CIA and the US military.

Having riveted and bolted himself to the moral high ground, Mr Assange has successfully cast himself as the champion of openness who is now being persecuted for daring to allow the truth to emerge and for taking on institutions vastly more powerful than he. For him, nothing is more important that exposing the truth for all to see. No one expected Mr Assange to have any caveats around that, after all, as a result of the leaks he orchestrated, people lost their lives, some in very unpleasant circumstances. But Mr Assange could not be shaken from the rock of his self-righteousness, someone else was to blame for that, not him.

And then, slowly, it started going wrong.  Two Swedish women claimed he sexually assaulted them when in Stockholm. Most reasonable people would have assumed that, facing such clearly outrageous accusations, Saint Assange would have rushed back to Sweden to clear his name so unfairly impugned by these wicked, deluded hussies. But no, Mr Assange was having none of that. It was obviously a put-up job. Taking on a view shared by the mullahs in Iran, Saint Assange claimed this was all a plot by the evil empire otherwise known as America. The US wants to extradite him, put him on trial and then execute him for leaking all their secrets, so he would have us believe.  I am not sure if he thinks aliens are involved, but clearly he wants us to think very dark forces are moving against him.

Nope, said the Swedes, it’s not a put up job…we want you to answer these accusations of sexual assault. But, whilst transparency is evidently good for everyone else, Mr Assange believes he is exempt from this annoying provision of justice. He has tried every legal trick in the book to avoid the UK extraditing him to Sweden where he will have to face his accusers. A long list of suitably outraged and high profile backers posted bail for their man, none evidently too concerned about the actual accusations of assault against their hero…that it was all an American inspired plot was an easy explanation to soothe away any doubts that the angelic Mr Assange might not be quite and pure as he makes out.

The wheels of British justice grind very slow…but they grind. They drew the completely unsurprising conclusion that Mr Assange’s mortality, not to mention his human rights, were not being put at risk by sending him to Sweden to answer sex assault charges. Dark legions from the US were not about to descend upon him…and anyway, even if they were, he would be just as well off in calm, civilised Sweden as he would be in London.

 
But Mr Assange is remarkably reluctant to leave the UK. Perhaps it’s because he has tickets for the beach volleyball event at the London Olympics, but somehow I doubt that’s foremost in his mind at the moment. He has now fled to the Ecuadorian embassy….seeking political asylum. From exactly what is not too clear, but presumably allegations of sexual assault don’t qualify. Some of his highest profile backers are now having second thoughts too. Jemima Khan wants him to face the accusations of rape now saying that his accusers also have a right to a response. Apparently Assange thinks otherwise.

Perhaps the US is still simmering with rage and does want to get its hands on him. No doubt they were humiliated by the leaks. Perhaps, notwithstanding that he is entering a bitter presidential re-election campaign, the naughty behaviour of Mr Assange is preoccupying Barack Obama’s thoughts to such an extent he wishes to divert the forces at his disposal to capturing our warrior of truth (er…that’s others’ truth, not his own of course). Perhaps Mr Assange genuinely believes he is the victim of a global manhunt and that he is only safe in London (or Ecuador). Perhaps he believes Sweden is in the back pocket of the US, perhaps he read it in the stars or heard it from an alien…perhaps this, perhaps that…perhaps those two women in Sweden making those “outrageous accusations” are actually telling the truth. 

Pakistan to ban Twitter (and perhaps all other forms of communication?)

Pakistan has apparently banned the use of twitter due to its blasphemous content. Gasp – what dreadful thing was being tweeted? Well, Twitter was wickedly tweeting about a competition on Facebook involving caricatures of Mohammed (oh no, not again you may well ask).  Not sure why Pakistan hasn’t banned Facebook instead (whose shares opened at about $40 notwithstanding heavenly disapproval), but perhaps Facebook, now that they are listed and corporate, have to be more compliant in the face of righteous fury.

Perhaps Pakistan should consider banning pencils too. And while they are about it, evil pencil-sharpeners, drawing paper and pens too and all other tempting means by which people communicate non-verbally.  That would avoid any further blasphemous forms of communication and prevent people from daring to speak out about that which has been declared unspeakable.

Here is a quote from Salman Rushdie, who knows a thing or two about this sort of thing:

“The moment you declare a set of ideas to be immune from criticism, satire, derision, or contempt, freedom of thought becomes impossible.”

Astrology - Debunking the nonsense….

Millions of people believe that practically everything about them, from the makeup of their personalities through to the events they will confront in their lives over the next 24 hours or months can, more or less, be foretold by the planets and stars.

I’ve always struggled with this. I mean, how it can possibly be that everything about a person can be foretold by the position of a lot of large stones and stars out there in space at the time of their birth. Makes no sense, in fact it’s so far-fetched and so devoid of a jot of any evidence to support it, that it must rank as one of the great hoaxes in history.

Trapped with its past?

Astrology has a very long history. It means the study or account of the stars, and its origins go back to ancient times. Initially it explained how the moon affected the tides and how the sun affected the seasons. All well and good. It all started getting a bit dodgy though when it moved from this into the area of horoscopes, relying upon human gullibility instead of celestial observation.

Astrology still largely treats the skies according to what was visible to the human eye at the time of Ancient Greeks and Babylonians.  Its Zodiac is unchanged over millennia. What about all the many new planets and other astronomical elements that have been discovered since and continue to be discovered? Surely they must have an impact upon the astrological affect?  What about black holes? What about near earth asteroids – presumably such potentially devastating phenomena would have quite an impact (excuse the pun) on horoscopes? (Just think of the impact they have had on Hollywood).
As a result, astrology has become a prisoner of its past – if it acknowledges that newly discovered planets and stars will affect its readings, in one stroke it automatically has to call into question its entire history of previous astrological predictions. Not so good for business or its credibility.

Consequently it must focus on finding ways in which it can’t be disproved, wrapping itself up in impenetrable pseudoscientific psychobabble.

How does it work?

I’ve always wondered that - just how does a planet affect my personality and the type of day I’m going to have? It makes no sense. Astrology birthed astronomy, but the child has been largely responsible for exposing its parent for the sham it is. No astrologer has ever been to explain how astrology works – just what is the extraordinary mechanism by which a planet, say, Jupiter, is able to exert an influence on you or I in our daily lives – what is the “it “ that is influencing us. Astrologists need to show some new law of nature at work. Some astrologists used to claim it was magnetism. But how does that affect events and behaviour? Besides, the pots and pans in your kitchen, your car engine or the change in your pocket, will exert more magnetic influence on you that a planet millions of miles away. Nope – that one falls at the first hurdle. There is no way it has yet been shown it can work.

Inconsistency and contradiction

Astrology is inconsistent – different astrologers give differing readings for the same event, contradicting each other. There is no properly controlled evidence of its reliability as a discipline. It cannot pass any properly controlled scientific test. 
Flawed assumption

Astrology’s key assumptions are also farcically flawed. Take Mars. Because it has iron oxide on its surface, Mars is seen as a red, “bloody” planet. Hence the easy association with aggressive and warlike character traits (Mars, the God of war etc.). This means that astrological predictions about daily events involving these character traits are a direct result of the fact that Mars has a lot of iron oxide on its surface.  Nope – I can’t really see much connection there either but I look forward to hearing about the relationship between Martian iron oxide and human conflict…….

Predicting the future doesn’t work

In short, astrology does not rely upon any of the laws of nature. It operates outside this, in the realm of pseudoscience.  It relies on the faith of its adherents, and its longevity is probably more to do with what is (or isn’t) going on inside its believers’ heads than what is happening out there in space or in the sequence of earthly events it purports to predict. Of course, a law of nature may suddenly be discovered which unexpectedly provides a basis to prove astrology works even if at some level. However, don’t hold your breath – as Carl Sagan said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

Ultimately though, astrology fails the first and most basic test- it does not work and that is because it is nonsense. Astrology did not predict 9/11 or the Fukushima nuclear meltdown. It did not proudly tell us in advance who would score the final goal in the last football world cup. It will not predict the next natural disaster and like any of us, it can only guess how Hussein Bolt will feel when he wakes up on the morning of the 100 meter final in the forthcoming  Olympics in July (excited I predict).

 

It can’t do what it says on the tin. This is because the future cannot be read, whether with astrology, tea leaves or tarot cards. You will not find out about what lies in wait for you by listening to David Ick or by consulting the Mayan calendar. The future does not yet exist –and any person or any discipline that says they have a secret or specially revealed, magical way of knowing what it holds, is lying to us and to themselves.

Hollande is elected...French mad man to the fore?

They have elected a socialist. His name is Mr Hollande.

Run.

If you believe the press. Mr Hollande apparently believes the rich are evil and must be taxed heavily for their obvious sins. He taps effortlessly into that painful assumption that modern and new-fangled is somehow immoral and cheap (and probably a nasty import from perfidious Albion) and responsible for the fading dreams of Gallic grandeur. He would like them all to be living in some socialist post enlightenment idyll where no one works (well, others somewhere else must work but let’s not worry about that) and if you are not on holiday, then you should be retired early. Ok, I’m exaggerating…slightly.

As one paper put it recently, Mr Hollande has already promised to spend money he has not yet even been able to borrow. Such is the rock upon which most socialist dreams flounder. Socialism is a wonderful hypothesis, yet the facts of history don’t bear it out. Humans by nature are greedy hunter gatherers who have always sought to accumulate goods and material wealth. Whether we like it or not, it is Capitalism that syncs most closely with this very fundamental and consistent aspect of human behaviour. 

But, back to France – it is not in a good place. Its banks resemble a cosmic phenomenon, most notably in that they have black holes instead of healthy balance sheets and they are light years from recovering their injudicious loans (notably to places like Greece and Italy). Many of its best and brightest have semi-grated to places like London and other northern European capitals where the wish to work hard (i.e. more than 35 hours a week) is not viewed as a character flaw and from which they can train-it back home at weekends. As a nation they seem preoccupied with their seemingly waning international influence as De Gaullism moves from the sunset into the shadows.

It has also recently been usurped by a resurgent Germany as the “political mover and shaker” in the Eurozone.  For years it has worried about the real or imagined loss of its influence, the way its culture is besieged by a sea of shallow and vacuous Anglo American imports, with their transient trends, pop fashions and associated vulgarities. Let’s not even get on to those “illegal foreign wars” or the irresistible tide of the English language. And to add insult to injury, the Far East now rises like a burning ultra-competitive sun on France’s horizon generating dark talk of trade tariffs and protectionism.

So what do you do when faced with all these problems – it appears you elect a man whose plan to save your sinking ship of state is to make a few more strategically placed economic holes in the hull. 

Because they are in such debt but still want to live beyond their means, Mr Hollande will borrow more money that will grow the bloated public sector a bit more. This he says will be good for growth, which has the logic of saying that eating more hamburgers is good for growth, even if not the kind you really want.

He says he will tax the very rich very heavily. For all that it is largely empty rhetoric, this has gone down very well indeed. In France no one likes the rich, although everyone wants the good life cushioned with generous state welfare paid for by that mythical sector of society known as “someone else”. There is an irony, not delicious but bitter and cynical, of resenting the rich but wanting the State to fund a standard of living you can’t afford – a trait by no means limited to France alone. No such thing as a free lunch, eh?

On the tax question, Mr Hollande, with all his talk of taxation and spending, risks becoming preoccupied with wealth distribution, as opposed to wealth creation. Like most politicians keen on embellishing their credentials with easy hand-outs, he prefers to ignore the reality that the distribution of wealth without equal attention to its creation is disastrous. If he is not careful, he will kill off the “golden goose” leading ultimately to wealth destruction. Just as you can’t dig your way out of a hole, you cannot tax your way out of a deficit. Over-taxation is like a bad smell in a small room. Those who are able, head for the door. In this case, the rich head for the exits (taking their proverbial sacks of wealth with them of course) and go and live somewhere else more welcoming like London (which is something like the 7^th largest French city now).

He will also placate the electorate with bland, reassuring speeches – he will apply a growth policy, as if he thinks this is like applying another layer of make-up. He will tell Germany that he is going to renegotiate the Eurozone fiscal stability pact that ensures austerity. What does he think this pact is – some local arrangement like the window cleaning contract at the Éllysée Palace? He may find there are a few problems with this. Germany likes its pact (and everyone else’s austerity). It likes its low inflation. The pact is also already agreed by France, which is thus at its mercy.

Yet, Mr Hollande tells the French that nothing is as bad as they say, it’s almost as if he is telling them that if they bury their heads deep enough in the sand, then they won’t be able to see it all those dark clouds above their heads and they can remain safe in the dream of a unique French way of life. Yet that is but a nostalgic yearning for what is now passed.  It is as if Hollande promises them a last glance over the nation’s hunching shoulders, back to the sunlit, halcyon days of a youth passed but irresistible in its recall.

So we await the miracle of socialist economics. Perhaps he also believes that the earth is flat; confirmation is pending….

London Hostage drama

Tottenham Court road closed this afternoon due to a hostage drama,involving an apparently disgruntled student who didn't do so well in his exams. Never having been a particularly effective scholar, my expectations of exam success were never likely to be so slighted. Anyway, I was able to watch the drama unfolding from the 23rd floor of a building in Euston....another long afternoon in a long meeting. Occasionally we could see bits and piece being hurled out of windows as the disgruntled gent roamed through the college. Has now been arrested, excitement over, back to the meeting then.....

Does God Exist….and is anybody listening?

The eternal question “Does God exist or not” has of late been receiving another high volume airing. Although neither side can actually, really, categorically, hand-on-heart prove this statement one way or the other, this rather important point has not stopped the protagonists leaping in, and substituting any attempt at polite persuasion with high octane volume.  And everywhere its being talked about, it seems to be following a prepared sequence of events that goes something like this:

1.   Each side put forward a point of view that more or less requires that the other side accept without precondition that it is 100% totally irrevocably wrong;

2.   Both sides then profess amazement that the other has failed to see the scientific facts / divinely revealed truth whilst each becomes only more determined not to cede a nanometre of the bomb-cratered trench of its own view point;

3.   Each side then repeat their mutually exclusive arguments at ever increasing orders of volume;

4.   See step 2.

This is of course a very serious business, and the protagonists have spent years honing their arts and arguments. It’s almost becoming business-as-usual.  But to listen to these debates, or follow them on-line reveals how ridiculous the whole thing is becoming. Indeed recently we had the amusing spectacle of a very eminent scientist (Dawkins) and an important clergyman bickering at a near infantile level about who could recall the full title of Darwin’s “Origin of Species”. Apparently both saw such a test of recall as some kind of comparator measure for a non-believer, if it should be held, on the other hand that, to qualify as a (Christian) believer, a person should be able to recall some biblical tract or detail (can’t remember what is was – no pun intended).

Both sides are like neighbours, who trapped in uneasy yet by necessity close proximity to each other, spend their days at the proverbial garden fence. There, with throats raw and hoarse from enraged shouting, and nose to nose, mouths as open wide as ears are tightly shut, they hurl their arguments at each other about whose “poodle fouled the porch”.

These arguments no doubt are as old as religions itself (“Baal exists – no he doesn’t” – I guess the “He Doesn’t” crowd win that one) and will continue long into the future as religions, as they have always done, mutate to reflect changing societies and concepts. New religions have formed, often as hybrids of well-established ones. This is nothing new, just as Mormonism is an off-shoot of Christianity, so were the Roman Gods developed from the religion of Ancient Greece – perhaps the Greek’s felt it was an early form of intellectual property theft? Another thing that won’t change either is that this argument will continue to be characterised by collective deafness on all sides.

Perhaps Bertrand Russell got closest to summarising the situation with his theory of the cosmic tea pot – whilst you can’t prove it’s not there, how can you prove it is? In short, if you want to claim something, then you need the scientific rigour and arising facts,  not to mention the courage to welcome challenge, to support your theory…..there is no basis to claim something exists solely because it can’t be proven not to.

MR KIM’S EXPENSIVE FIREWORK: THE UNHA 3

On Thursday 12 April North Korea launched a much hyped rocket, the Unha-3, which, so we are told, was part of their planning to be able to launch and orbit intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. 

In the days before the launch various “lucky” foreign journalists were allowed into North Korea, and had been given a train trip out to the site of the rocket launch in the north west of the country.  Snapshots of the train trip revealed despairing landscapes with peasants toiling in distant fields in a grim eastern dystopia. Journalists were chaperoned around by robotically crisp and expressionless guards in sharp green uniforms no doubt selected to convey an impression of ruthless efficiency and order. Unfortunately for the North Koreans, such displays of efficiency and obedience are easier to ensure in soldiers than annoying and expensive missiles.

The brief film clips of the launch site itself suggested it was in a remote location, well away from prying eyes or concentrations of starving, desperate people. The rocket gantry hardly inspired much confidence – not quite tomato boxes and chicken wire – but a rather odd looking contraption that looked like something out of laughably bad 1960’s sci-fi.

The launch represented the latest Kim’s first club-footed foray into international diplomacy and induced the predictable hand wringing and protests from his neighbours, save for his loyal ally, China.  The rocket and launch were also in part to honour the memory of Kim’s grandfather Kim ll-sung’s 100^th birthday and who remains their “eternal” president (see 3 Kims for the price of 1).

Predictably, the whole thing was over almost as quickly as it began. Between 90 seconds and 3 minutes after launch the wretched thing plopped harmlessly down into the Yellow Sea without even getting into orbit. This is acutely embarrassing for North Korea, particularly since Unha means Milky Way, and, for all intents and purposes, it could hardly have got any closer to the Milky way if it had instead saved us all the bother and politely fallen out of its gantry. Japan added to the indignity by referring to the mighty Unha’s fate  as “some kind of flying object from North Korea….fell down into the ocean”, just as if it were an oversized, misbehaving Roman Candle; just a very expensive firework then....

 Laughable though all this may be, its consequences may be much more serious. A humiliated dictator is an unpredictable and dangerous beast. Will he now press ahead with more missile testing or underground testing of his bombs? China too will have been, privately, seething – an unreliable rocket could easily come down on its heavily populated lands. Is there now a risk that China will help Kim No 3 build a more reliable rocket, if only to ensure it’s not the unintended recipient of such a rocket’s payload in future?

For the moment though, Mr Kim’s temper will hardly be improved by the thought that the only place he can detonate one of his nuclear bombs with any certainty is in his own country. Even still, that’s hardly a comforting thought for people ruled over by a madman…..