Who won the North Korean War that never was?

So, who won the great North Korean War that never was? It's not that clear, save that China lost, at least in the short term. China could not control it's former friend North Korea. It was embarrassed that its influence was exposed as light, if not even feeble. The bankrupt and impoverished hermit kingdom thumbed its nose at the only country thought to have had any sway over it. Japan and all the other nations of south east asia will have seen and noted all this.

In fact, the sudden cessation of noisy rhetoric suggested that, like a naughty child, North Korea's Kim Jong-Un (Fatty the Third) has been "rewarded” in some way for turning down the volume and conducting the affairs of his state slightly less abnormally than has been his recent custom. The only country likely to have done that is North Korea's northern neighbour, China. His good behaviour would likely have been in exchange for food aid, financial aid and other packages to ease his position. The onlystring to the deal would have been not to have publicised China's largesse.

Fatty the Third might have emerged from this war of words intact, even with his internal reputation enhanced. However, he hasn't really emerged a victor, in that sense. Behind the scenes his only ally of note must be absolutely seething. Making an enemy of China is not particularly smart and there may well now be a reckoning as China must surely be thinking about their longer term relationship with North Korea and how this can be restructured to their advantage. How much longer can they tolerate him? Whether Fatty the Third figures in that future is a moot point. If he has a jot of common sense, he needs to do some urgent bridge building with his powerful neighbour.

For South Korea it's been an quite a good outcome too. They were seen to stand firm and did not give in to the normal temptation to reward North Korea's bad behaviour with aid sweeteners. The sunshine policy of trying to be matey with the monster next door has been put on the back burner - trying to appease tyrants and bullies does not work, as just a cursory glance at history would have informed them.

For the USA it's been quite a good non-war too. All the surrounding countries will have been alarmed by North Korea's aggression and China's seeming impotence when it comes to controlling Fatty the Third. On the other hand they will have been assured to some extent by the USA's presence and apparent willingness to do what was necessary in the event of a worst outcome scenario. This is in stark contrast to the dithering and vacillation over Syria where it's now almost too late to do anything constructive.

In the medium term it's probably also put China's attempts to reassure its nervous neighbours that it's a force for stability and peace in the region on the back foot. Those neighbours may now start looking to the US for that assurance and sense of protection, as its pivots towards the east and the Pacific.

Interestingly, China has in the last few days, announced its claim on the Japanese island on Okinawa. Done obliquely through the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,  an institution close to the Communist Government, this may well be part of the wider game being played over the spate of territorial demarcations stretcdhing to as far away as India. However, it's not insignificant that, in its report, the Academy refers to Okinawa as part of a former vassal state. Such a phrase will have been deliberate and loaded with nationalist implications, for it is the terminology used by imperial China in its heyday to refer to its supplicant and dependent neighbouring countries, including Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and others. These vassal states, in a semi feudal relationship, paid tribute to China in the form of materials and supplies that recognised its overall dominance and superiority.

So, whilst Fatty the Third might be going easy on the bloodcurdling rhetoric for now, China is sending out its own increasingly clear and confident signals for its long term aspirations. Along with new President Xi Jinping's promotion of the "Chinese Dream", the talk of rewriting borders and claiming former vassal states is tapping into a millennia old view of Chinese superiority and of China, the ancient Middle Kingdom and centre of the civilised world.  So, just as America pivots towards it, China starts to more openly pivot towards its century-long suppressed, but very much alive, dream of restoring the dominance of its imperial/Confucian past, dressed up in the (communist) emperor’s new clothes.

Also see North Korean Roulette and Fatty The Third